Iran – A House Divided

As developments unfold in Iran the opposition may seem to be an unstoppable "sea of green". The police has started to become more lax, or in the case of Teheran's chief of police even openly supporting the opposition by walking with the marchers yesterday, and other police officers charged with upholding the order wearing green scarfs in support or smiling at the protestors.
The parliament, the Majlis, has ordered an investigation into the incidents where suspected plainclothes members of the Basiji militia broke into university dorms and and attacked students and damaged property. 8 students seem to have been killed in these attacks in Teheran, Isfahan and Shiraz.
Mousavi has a strong ally in Rafsanjani who is trying to mobilize the Council of Experts against Khamenei. For the first time since 1979, the undisputed status of the Ayatollah seems to actually be swaying.
The army is standing back and taking a neutral position, and even some parts of the Revolutionary Guard may be supporting Mousavi.
So what could possibly go wrong? Well, everything.
The chief of police in Teheran has been arrested for taking part in the demonstrations. Smiling policemen are alright, but smiles don't cost anything and there are numerous examples of that from other demonstrations around the world that finally turned violent anyway. In the end, the police are doing a job, and if someone in the right place decides that it is their duty to stop a mass gathering on the grounds of security, they will be people ready to do it, and there won't be so many smiles anymore.
Unconfirmed reports from inside Iran suggest that loyalist IRGC forces are quietly taking over the reluctant army's command posts in preparation for more violence. Foreign arab-speaking militants have been deployed in support of the Basiji, unclear whether from Lebanon, Palestine or Iraq, but they are there and they will have no second thought's on using violence like an iranian might have against other nationals. It's a classic tactic to use foreign armed forces to loyally support your own side in a civil war. A Tienanmen square style crackdown is still possible. Parts of the army may well be considering a move in favor of Mousavi, but they have to be careful not to let the IRGC stop them before they have time to do anything.
Rafsanjani has seemingly not been able to "impeach" the Ayatollah despite his sway over the Council of Experts as their chairman, the Council of Guardians that supervise the elections are mostly hardliners lead by an extreme hardliner, and the Ayatollah is still bent on having Ahmadinejad for president for another four years.
And the original problem of who has popular support is not yet resolved. In the midst of allegations over fraud, Ahmadinejad may still have a large support from ordinary people in the countryside who's only source of information are heavily controlled and in many cases outright lying state controlled media. The millions that marched in the streets yesterday for Mousavi are not mentioned with a word on state televion. Many will actually believe that nothing big has really happened and that anti-Ahmadinejad protests are violent acts of small bands of troublemakers financed and puppeteered by meddling americans and israelis.