Ugandan AU forces in Somalia - The last stand?
Yesterday the US State Department announced that it has successfully shipped guns and ammunition to the African Union forces protecting president Sheik Abdullah Ahmed and the transitional government in Somalia, as well as some hard cash to help finance the build up of a functioning security force. But is this too little too late?
The Transitional Federal Government TFG is fighting for its existance. The jihad oriented salafist Al Shabaab, "The Lads", has practically overrun the greater part of the capital and controls most of southern and central Somalia. Yesterday they ostensively cut a hand and a foot off four suspected thiefs in Mogadishu to show that they are perfectly capable of fighting crime and disorder through fear and sharia law. Isolated African Union soldiers from Uganda and Burundi, at the moment 4.300 persons, are holed up and not capable of doing much more than barely defend themselves against mortarattacks and the increasing threat of suicide bombers (until recently not a common occurence in the area). The guns and ammunition now promised has been rushed to the AU forces for immediate use, which will surely be welcomed, but how fast can the government be expected to create a new army to counter the Lads when they don't even control the streets of the capital anymore? The government is recognized only in the north, and is just partially functional as an institution as hundreds of members of parliament and public servants have fled the fighting along with other civilians. Just a week ago the government was desperately calling for help through foreign military intervention.
Now that is something the Lads would surely love. They have been provoking Kenyan troops along the border for weeks with attacks and general acts of banditry, promising that any retaliation would result in a revengeful devastation of the glass towers of Nairobi. The kenyan interior ministry denies any plans to enter Somalia, but troops have effectively been massed on the border. It seems the defense ministry wants to keep the option open, or at least make sure there is an appropriate defense against southern somali militant raids entering the country.
If the kenyan military did enter Somalia however, it could unite a lot of angry people behind the Lads and make the TFG politically impossible.
And any further incursion by Ethiopia would definitely be just as bad, despite having made it possible for the TFG to return to its own country the last time. Even moderate sufis in the TFG, including fiercly anti-ethiopian president Sheik Abdullah Ahmed, would likely oppose such a move. He was after all part of the Islamic Courts Union ousted by Ethiopian forces last time around, and on the other hand his hardliner sharia positive position is something that gives him a slim chance of reconciliation with the south. Few nations could be more hated in the southern parts of Somalia, with the possible exception of the US. The Lads have a trusted ally in Ethiopia's bitter enemy Eritrea for weapons supplies, whether by air or through the port of Kismaayo. Occasional blockading of eritrean ships to the port does not seem to have hindered the Lads taking over Mogadishu. Perhaps an air blockade, as suggested by many african nations, could reduce the amount of arms that enters the south, but it could also hamper genuine aid efforts, and the question is if it really makes any sense anymore.
So what can be hoped for? Well, if Pakistan's Swat valley is anything to compare with (and tourist jihadists from Afghanistan and Pakistan have come in the hundreds in Somalia influencing the Lads), jihadist salafist rule will prove so cruel and foreign to a large mainstream population that it sooner or later provokes more armed resistance of ordinary angry people than it can handle. If the transitional government can lead this resistance and stay in place, or again has to move to safety or collapse entirely, remains to see.
Right now, it can only be said that any foreign intrusion into Somalia will probably backfire as hard as all foreign interventions have for the last two decades.
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